A client asked me in December why their organic traffic dropped 30% despite ranking #1 for their primary keywords. Their rankings hadn't changed. Their content hadn't changed. But Google had placed an AI-generated summary above their #1 position for 40% of their target queries - and users stopped scrolling.

This isn't an isolated case. It's a structural shift backed by a growing body of research.

I spent the last month compiling every credible study on how Google's AI Overviews (AIOs) are affecting click-through rates. What follows is the most comprehensive analysis you'll find anywhere - 12 studies, hundreds of millions of data points, and a clear picture of what's actually happening to search marketing.

The Research Landscape: 12 Studies, One Conclusion

Before diving into individual findings, here's the summary: every single study measuring CTR impact found a decline when AI Overviews are present. The magnitude varies from 15% to 89% depending on methodology, query type, and measurement window. But the direction is unanimous.

Study 1: Seer Interactive (The Gold Standard)

Seer Interactive's study is the most rigorous analysis to date. They analyzed 3,119 informational queries across 42 organizations, spanning 25.1 million organic impressions and 1.1 million paid impressions between June 2024 and September 2025.

Key findings:

That last point is critical. AIO citations are becoming the new "position zero" - and most companies have no strategy for earning them.

Study 2: Ahrefs (Two-Phase Analysis)

Ahrefs conducted their initial study in April 2025, finding that AI Overviews reduced clicks to top-ranking content by 34.5%. They then updated the analysis in December 2025 with a larger dataset of 300,000 keywords using aggregated Google Search Console data.

The updated finding: AI Overviews reduce organic CTR for position 1 content by 58% - nearly double their earlier measurement. The study compared 150,000 keywords with AIOs present against 150,000 informational keywords without them, benchmarked against December 2023 (pre-AI Overviews).

Study 3: Authoritas

Authoritas found that when AI Overviews appear, the top organic link's CTR drops by approximately 79%. Desktop traffic declined 56.1% and mobile traffic declined 48.2%. Perhaps most concerning: about 70% of pages cited in AI Overviews change over a 2-3 month period, and these citation changes were not linked to traditional organic rankings.

Translation: you can't rely on your current AIO citations staying stable. This is a volatile, shifting landscape.

Study 4: Pew Research Center (The Academic Perspective)

In July 2025, Pew Research published what is arguably the most methodologically rigorous study. They analyzed actual browsing activity data from 900 U.S. adults in March 2025.

Their findings:

Google disputed these findings, calling the methodology "flawed." But Pew Research isn't a marketing blog - their methodology is peer-reviewed, and their sample was demographically representative.

Study 5: Amsive (The Nuanced View)

Amsive analyzed 700,000 keywords across 10 websites and 5 industries. Their findings add important nuance:

That branded keyword finding is the silver lining in this data. When someone searches for your brand by name and an AI Overview appears, your CTR actually goes up. This makes intuitive sense - the AIO reinforces brand authority. It also means brand investment has never been more important for search performance.

Study 6: Daily Mail / DMG Media

DMG Media (parent company of the Daily Mail) shared internal data showing their CTR dropped from 25.2% on regular desktop searches to just 2.8% when AI Overviews are shown - an 89% decrease. However, they noted that AI Overviews don't typically trigger for breaking news queries, and the overall traffic impact remains in the "very, very low single-digit" percentage range.

Study 7: Semrush (10 Million Keyword Analysis)

Semrush's landmark study analyzed over 10 million keywords throughout 2025, providing the most comprehensive look at AI Overview prevalence trends:

The expansion from informational into commercial and navigational queries is the trend that should alarm performance marketers. AIOs are no longer just eating top-of-funnel content traffic - they're moving into buying-intent territory.

Studies 8-12: Supporting Evidence

Kevin Indig conducted a meta-analysis of 19 separate AIO studies and ran the first UX study tracking 70 users across 400+ AI Overview encounters. Conclusion: >50% organic CTR reduction.

Techmagnate analyzed 40,000 keywords in the finance/banking sector. Informational query CTR dropped 33.33 percentage points; transactional queries dropped 9.50 points. Position 1 organic CTR fell from 10.67% to 7%.

Advanced Web Ranking tracked AI Overview prevalence growing from 18.55% of search results in Q3 2024 to 49.92% by Q4 2025 - nearly half of all search results.

Similarweb measured zero-click searches increasing from 56% to 69% between May 2024 and May 2025, a 13 percentage-point increase since AI Overviews launched.

SparkToro/Datos (2024) found that for every 1,000 Google searches in the US, only 360 clicks reach non-Google-owned, non-Google-ad-paying properties. The open web is getting a shrinking slice of search traffic.

The Real-World Casualties

These aren't just percentages. They're killing businesses.

HubSpot's organic traffic collapsed from 13.5 million to roughly 6-7 million monthly visits between late 2024 and early 2025 - a 70-80% decline. Their CEO acknowledged on an earnings call that "AI overviews are giving answers, and fewer people are clicking through to websites." HubSpot's case was compounded by algorithm changes, but AI Overviews accelerated the fall.

Chegg sued Google in February 2025, claiming AI Overviews "materially impact acquisitions, revenue, and employees." Their numbers: revenue down 24% year over year, subscriptions down 21%, and stock price down roughly 90% from its peak.

Press Gazette / Chartbeat data showed Google search traffic to publishers declined globally by a third in the year to November 2025. US publishers were hit hardest at -38%. NPR characterized the situation as an "extinction-level event" for online publishers.

Business Insider saw organic search traffic fall 55% between April 2022 and April 2025, leading to 21% staff cuts.

But Wait: Google Says Everything Is Fine

Sundar Pichai, on Google's Q4 2025 earnings call in February 2026, stated that "AI Overviews continue to perform very well" and are "driving greater usage." Alphabet revenues exceeded $400 billion for the first time. Search ad revenues grew 17%.

How does this square with plummeting CTRs? Three mechanisms:

  1. CPC inflation is compensating for fewer clicks. WordStream's 2025 benchmarks showed the average Google Ads CPC rose to $5.26 - up 12.9% year over year, with 87% of industries seeing increases. Software/tech CPCs jumped 41%. Fewer clicks at higher prices equals flat or growing revenue for Google
  2. Google is monetizing AI Overviews directly. Ads appeared in 25.56% of AIO-containing SERPs by October 2025, up from 5.17% in March - a 394% increase in eight months. This is a new revenue surface that didn't exist before
  3. Google is capturing value within its own ecosystem. When users get answers without clicking through, they stay on Google longer, see more ads, and generate more data. The value hasn't disappeared - it's been redistributed from publishers to Google

In short: Google is doing great. The websites that depended on Google traffic are not.

What This Means for Performance Marketing

Here's where I disagree with most of the commentary I've seen. The common take is "SEO is dead" or "Google Ads don't work anymore." Both are wrong. What's actually happening is more nuanced and, if you adapt, potentially advantageous.

The Quality-Volume Tradeoff

WordStream's 2025 data revealed something counterintuitive: despite falling CTRs, 65% of industries saw improved conversion rates. The average conversion rate across all industries reached 7.52%.

This makes sense. AI Overviews are satisfying the casual information seekers - people who were never going to convert. The clicks that do come through are from higher-intent users who need more than a summary. One client I work with saw a 20% CTR decline but steady conversion rates, confirming that the lost traffic was early-stage researchers unlikely to buy.

The implication: raw click volume is a misleading KPI in the AI Overview era. Revenue per click and conversion rate are what matter now.

The Query Type Hierarchy

Not all queries are equally affected. Based on the research, I use this framework to prioritize:

High risk (restructure or deprioritize):

Moderate risk (optimize and monitor):

Lower risk (double down):

Five Strategic Shifts for 2026

Based on twelve months of data and hands-on client work, here's the playbook I'm running:

1. Invest in brand, not just demand capture. Branded queries are the only category where AIOs increase CTR. Every dollar spent building brand recognition pays compound returns in search. Companies that built their entire strategy on capturing non-branded informational traffic (the HubSpot model) are the ones getting destroyed.

2. Optimize for AIO citations. Seer Interactive found that being cited in an AIO yields 35% more organic clicks and 91% more paid clicks. This is the new competitive advantage. Structured content, clear answer formatting, list-based content, and authoritative sourcing all improve AIO citation likelihood. Treat AIO citation as a discrete optimization target alongside traditional rankings.

3. Shift paid spend toward high-intent, low-AIO queries. Not every search triggers an AI Overview. Semrush data shows AIOs peaked at 25% prevalence and settled around 15%. Identify the 85% of queries in your space that don't trigger AIOs and prioritize budget there. Use negative keyword strategies to avoid queries where your ads will be buried under a generated summary.

4. Recalibrate KPIs away from click volume. If your CFO is still measuring marketing by "traffic to website," it's time for a conversation. Clicks are down but conversion rates are up. Revenue per session is more meaningful than sessions. Pipeline generated per dollar spent is the metric that cuts through the noise.

5. Diversify traffic sources aggressively. The Press Gazette data is clear: Google search referrals to publishers dropped 33% in one year. Companies that depend on Google for 60%+ of their traffic are sitting on a single point of failure. Email, social, direct, communities, podcast audiences, newsletter sponsorships - the companies winning right now are the ones that built multiple channels before the decline hit.

The Contrarian View: This Could Be a Competitive Advantage

Most marketing advice right now is some version of "the sky is falling." I see it differently.

AI Overviews are destroying the middle of the market - the generic, commodity content that dominated search for a decade. "10 tips for email marketing." "What is a CRM?" "How to write a business plan." This content was always low-value. It attracted visitors who rarely converted. And companies spent enormous resources creating it.

What AI Overviews can't replicate is original thinking, proprietary data, unique frameworks, and genuine expertise. When someone reads an AI summary about "marketing attribution" and realizes they need deeper help, they'll seek out the person or company that clearly knows more than the AI does.

The bar for content that earns a click just got higher. That's bad for content farms. It's good for genuine experts.

For growing companies, this shift means marketing strategy matters more than marketing volume. You don't need 50 blog posts a month. You need five that are genuinely better than what an AI can summarize. That's a strategic question, not a production question - and it's exactly the kind of decision where experienced marketing leadership makes the difference.

The Bottom Line

The data is unambiguous: AI Overviews reduce click-through rates by 15-89% depending on query type and measurement methodology. This is not speculation. It's confirmed by Seer Interactive, Ahrefs, Pew Research, Authoritas, Semrush, and a half-dozen other credible sources analyzing hundreds of millions of data points.

But "CTR is down" is a description, not a strategy. The companies that will win in this environment are the ones that:

Search marketing isn't dying. But the search marketing that worked from 2015 to 2024 is over. The question isn't whether to adapt. It's whether you'll adapt before or after your competitors do.